Annual global IP traffic will pass the zettabyte ([ZB]; 1000 exabytes [EB]) threshold by the end of 2016, and will reach 2.3 ZB per year by 2020. By the end of 2016, global IP traffic will reach 1.1 ZB per year, or 88.7 EB per month, and by 2020 global IP traffic will reach 2.3 ZB per year, or 194 EB per month.
Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent from 2015 to 2020. Monthly IP traffic will reach 25 GB per capita by 2020, up from 10 GB per capita in 2015.
Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60‑minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 51 percent in 2015, compared with 29-percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 4.6 between 2015 and 2020, and average Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 2.0.
Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020. In 2015, PCs accounted for 53 percent of total IP traffic, but by 2020 PCs will account for only 29 percent of traffic. Smartphones will account for 30 percent of total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8 percent in 2015. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 8 percent, and TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 17 percent, 39 percent, 58 percent, and 44 percent, respectively.
Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for two-thirds of total IP traffic by 2020. By 2020, wired devices will account for 34 percent of IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 66 percent of IP traffic. In 2015, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic, at 52 percent.
Content delivery networks (CDNs) will carry nearly two-thirds of Internet traffic by 2020. Sixty-four percent of all Internet traffic will cross CDNs by 2020 globally, up from 45 percent in 2015.
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the global population by 2020. There will be 3.4 networked devices per capita by 2020, up from 2.2 networked devices per capita in 2015. There will be 26.3 billion networked devices in 2020, up from 16.3 billion in 2015.
Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2020. By 2020, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps in 2015.
Global Internet Video and Gaming Highlights
It would take more than 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2020. Every second, a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2020.
Globally, IP video traffic will be 82 percent of all IP traffic (both business and consumer) by 2020, up from 70 percent in 2015. Global IP video traffic will grow threefold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 26 percent. Internet video traffic will grow fourfold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 31 percent.
Internet video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in 2015, from 272 petabytes per month at the end of 2014 to 516 petabytes per month in 2015. Internet video surveillance traffic will increase tenfold between 2015 and 2020. Globally, 3.9 percent of all Internet video traffic will be due to video surveillance in 2020, up from 1.5 percent in 2015.
Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in 2015, from 4.2 petabytes (PB) per month in 2014 to 17.9 PB per month in 2015. Globally, virtual reality traffic will increase 61-fold between 2015 and 2020, a CAGR of 127 percent.
Internet video to TV grew 50 percent in 2015. This traffic will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.6-fold by 2020. Internet video to TV will be 26 percent of fixed consumer Internet video traffic in 2020.
Consumer video-on-demand (VoD) traffic will nearly double by 2020. The amount of VoD traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 7.2 billion DVDs per month.
Internet gaming traffic will grow sevenfold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 46 percent. Globally, Internet gaming traffic will be 4 percent of consumer Internet traffic in 2020, up from 2 percent in 2015.
Global Mobile Highlights
Globally, mobile data traffic will increase eightfold between 2015 and 2020. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 53 percent between 2015 and 2020, reaching 30.6 exabytes per month by 2020.
Global mobile data traffic will grow almost three times as fast as fixed IP traffic from 2015 to 2020. Fixed IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 19 percent between 2015 and 2020, while mobile traffic grows at a CAGR of 53 percent. Global mobile data traffic was 5 percent of total IP traffic in 2015, and will be 16 percent of total IP traffic by 2020.
Regional Highlights
IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 41 percent between 2015 and 2020.
Summary of regional growth rates:
● IP traffic in North America will reach 59.1 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 19 percent.
● IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 28.0 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 20 percent.
● IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 67.8 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 22 percent.
● IP traffic in Latin America will reach 11.6 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 21 percent.
● IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 17.0 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 27 percent.
● IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 10.9 EB per month by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 41 percent.
Note: Several interactive tools are available to allow you to create custom highlights and forecast charts by region, by country, by application, and by end-user segment (refer to the Cisco VNI Forecast Highlights tool and the Cisco VNI Forecast Widget tool).
Global Business Highlights
Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 18 percent from 2015 to 2020. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 2 between 2015 and 2020.
Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 6 percent, compared with a CAGR of 21 percent for fixed business Internet and 47 percent for mobile business Internet traffic.
Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa. Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 21 percent, a faster pace than the global average of 18 percent. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2019, at 11.4 EB per month. North America will be second, at 9.1 EB per month.
Forecast Overview
The current Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) forecast projects global IP traffic to nearly triple from 2015 to 2020. Appendix A offers a detailed summary. Overall IP traffic is expected to grow to 194 EB per month by 2020, up from 72.5 EB per month in 2015, a CAGR of 22 percent (Figure 1). This growth represents only a slight tapering from last year’s projected growth rate for 2014 to 2019, which was 23 percent. It appears that global IP traffic growth is stabilizing in the 20–25 percentage range.
Figure 1. Cisco VNI Forecasts 194 EB per Month of IP Traffic by 2020
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020
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